Here’s part five of the second round of congressional races. Earlier parts are here
Illinois has 19 representatives, 10 Democrats and 9 Republicans. The filing deadline was way back in November, and the primary a couple weeks ago, so this is it
District: IL-01
Location Partly the south side of Chicago, partly suburbs
Representative Bobby Rush (D)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 84-16
2004 margin 85-15
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Notes on opponents neither raised money
Current opponents Antoine Members (no site)
Demographics More Blacks than any other district (65.3%), 13th most Democratic, per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe
District: IL-02
Location South side of Chicago and suburbs
Representative Jesse Jackson Jr (D)
First elected 1995
2006 margin 85-12
2004 margin 88-12
Bush margin 2004 16-84
Notes on opponents Neither had money
Current opponents None
Demographics 4th most Blacks (62%), 13th most Democratic (tied with the IL-01)
Assessment Uncontested
District: IL-03
Location Southwestern Chicago
Representative Dan Lipinski (D)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 77-23
2004 margin 73-25
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Notes on opponents Neither had money
Current opponents Michael Hawkins
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: IL-04
Location Possibly the oddest shaped district in the USA (and that’s saying something!) this one…looks like an ordinary district with a big piece missing in the middle. It includes the Latino districts on the north side, wanders west, has a string-wide bit going south, and then includes the Latino districts on the south side.
Representative Luis Gutierrez (D)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 86-14
2004 margin 84-12
Bush margin 2004 21-79
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Ann Melichar, who lost in 2006
Demographics 5th most Latinos (74.5%) (3 of the 4 higher are in TX), 5th fewest veterans (4.3%)
Assessment Safe
District: IL-05
Location North side of Chicago, from the lake west to O’Hare
Representative Rahm Emanuel (D)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 78-22
2004 margin 76-24
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Notes on opponents Neither had money
Current opponents Kevin White (who lost in 2006)
Demographics 23rd fewest veterans (6.7%)
Assessment Safe
District: IL-06
Location Western suburbs of Chicago
Representative Peter Roskam (R)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Notes on opponents Tammy Duckworth made a race of this, raising $4.5 million to Roskam’s $3.3 million
Current opponents Jill Morgenthaler
Demographics 12th fewest people in poverty (4.3%), 30th highest median income ($63K)
Assessment Probably safe, Morgenthaler does not look close to Duckworth
District: IL-07
Location Chicago’s Loop and nearby
Representative Danny Davis (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 87-13
2004 margin 86-14
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Notes on opponents Neither had money, Davis has never had a close race
Current opponents Robert Dallas
Demographics 16th most Blacks (61.6%), 20th most people in poverty (24%) (but median income is moderate – $40K)
Assessment safe
District: IL-08
Location North of Chicago to the WI border, including Schaumburg
Representative Melissa Bean (D)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 51-44 (remainder “moderate” party)
2004 margin 52-48
Bush margin 2004 56-44
Notes on opponents In 2006, this was a hugely expensive race, with Bean spending over $4 million and David McSweeney over $5 million. In 2004, Bean and Crane each spent about $1.5 million
Current opponents Steve Greenberg
Demographics 28th highest income ($63K)
Assessment Possibly another close one, although Bean has now won two tough races.
District: IL-09
Location Northern suburbs of Chicago
Representative Jan Schakowsky (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin 76-24
Bush margin 2004 32-68
Notes on opponents Neither raised money
Current opponents Michael Younan
Demographics 35th fewest veterans (8%), 37th most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (mostly 12.3% Asians)
Assessment Safe
District: IL-10
Location Northern suburbs of Chicago, along Lake Michigan
Representative Mark Kirk (R)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 53-47
2004 margin 64-36
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Notes on opponents In 2006, Dan Seals raised almost $2 millon to Kirk’s $3.5 million
Current opponents Dan Seals
Demographics 9th highest income (median = $72K)
Assessment Should be another humdinger!
District: IL-11
Location Shaped like a T, with the middle of the T in Ottawa, the bottom in Bloomington, the eastern end in Kankakee, and the western end in rural IL
Representative Jerry Weller (R) retiring
First elected 1994
2006 margin 55-45
2004 margin 59-41
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Notes on opponents In 2006, John Pavich raised $600K to Weller’s $2 million; in 2004, Tari Renner raised $300K to Weller’s $1.8 million
Current opponents Debbie Halvorsen
Demographics 39th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks
Assessment Unclear
District: IL-12
Location Southwestern IL, bordering MO and a tiny bit of KY, including Carbondale and East St. Louis
Representative Jerry Costello (D)
First elected 1988
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 69-29
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Tim Richardson
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: IL-13
Location Southwestern suburbs and exurbs of Chicago
Representative Judy Bigert (R)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 65-35
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Notes on opponents In 2006, Joseph Shannon raised $225K to Bigert’s $1 million
Current opponents Scott Harper
Demographics 9th wealthiest district (median income = $72K), 2nd fewest in poverty (2.9%)
Assessment Long shot
District: IL-14
Location From the far western part of Chicagoland, west almost to the IA border in northern IL
Representative None. Hastert (R) resigned
First elected NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents Bill Foster on the Democratic side, Jim Oberweis on the Republican side
Demographics 37th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment A new poll shows Foster with a small lead
District: IL-15
Location Eastern central IL, bordering IN, centering on Urbana-Champaign
Representative Tim Johnson (R)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 61-39
Bush margin 2004 59-41
Notes on opponents David Gill ran both times; in 2006, he raised $230K to Johnson’s $500K
Current opponents Steve Cox (no site)
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot
District: IL-16
Location Northwestern IL, bordering WI and IA, including Rockford
Representative Don Manzullo (R)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 69-31
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Notes on opponents In 2006, Richard Auman raised $100K to Manzullo’s $1.3 million, the 2004 opponent raised little
Current opponents Robert Abboud
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot
District: IL-17
Location A strange shaped district in southwestern IL, bordering IA and MO, including Moline and extending eastward almost to Springfield
Representative Phil Hare (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Notes on opponents Hare raised about $800K; his opponent, Andrea Zinga, about $400K
Current opponents None
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: IL-18
Location Shaped like a backward C, centering on Peoria in central IL
Representative Ray LaHood (R) retiring
First elected 1994
2006 margin 67-33
2004 margin 70-30
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Notes on opponents neither raised money
Current opponents unclear!
Demographics 75th most Whites (90%)
Assessment Unclear
I somehow left out IL-19, more later
District: IL-19
Location Southern IL, from suburbs of Springfield south and east to the IN and KY border
Representative John Shimkus
First elected 1996
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin 69-31
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Notes on opponents In 2006, Danny Stover raised $166K to Shimkus’ $800K
Current opponents John McMenamin
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot
Hey where’s the 19th (John Shimkus) district? Let’s also not forget that some parts of said district were represented by a Democrat- whose name is escaping me- as late as 2002. During redistricting Shimkus eventually beat that incumbent, as their districts were drawn to be combined.
Kerry carried the district 67-33; not Bush. It is a safe district as you note.
Everything I see on the net points to Colleen Callahan (Burns) as the Democratic candidate for IL-18 but nothing seems to indicate when it will become official. The primary was three weeks ago so time is a wasting. Is there any advantage to waiting? The long lead time between primary and the general election already has amassed one victim: Tim Baldermann, a Republican.
This could be the year when the gerrymander gets reversed at the ballot box with Democrats having a lot of pick up opportunities: IL-10, IL-11, IL-14 and just maybe IL-6 or IL-18.
Given the year, the money and the open seat, Tammy Duckworth was not such a great candidate. The fact that she lived outside the district was an easy hammer for Roskam to pound her with. If GI Jill Morgenthaler catches fire she may surprise.
Illinois is one of those states where Democrats underperformed in 2006 and still have multiple targets in 2008. And like NJ and Ohio there are open Republican seats this time. (Zach Space won because of Ney, kind of outside the tsunami experience of 2006 in OH-18). These states are prime hunting territory for Democrats in 2008. Florida and potentially Michigan could also become hot spots.
Bean’s seat looks like it is following a traditional pattern as her margin increases and her opponent is less funded. I think she actually is on the verge of having a relatively safe seat. Unfortunately, she’s quite the outspoken DINO.
according to primary results I have seen, Joe McMenamin lost in the primary. The Democratic nominee was a Daniel Davis.